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1. The stock price of a profiled company should have a reasonable possibility of rising at least 50% over the 12 months following
the date we first discuss it here and, hopefully, it should have a short-term downside risk of no more than 25%. Obviously, these
are simply goals, and we all know how often those turn out as expected.
2. There should be some reasonable degree of market liquidity.
There is no point in talking about situations where very few people can take positions in a stock before it takes off. Unfortunately,
in the rare instance where our timing happens to be very lucky, we may hit a brief market bottom which may last only a few days and
the buying opportunity at a bargain price may be very limited. Still, for longer term investors, this should not be the sole determining
factor in making their investment decision.
3. The company should be involved in a business, or have a business model which has reasonable possibility of showing
significant progress, or at least positive news generation over the coming 12 to 24 months.
In the case of companies involved in R&D
activities prior to actual income generation, the market and revenue potential for the product(s) or service(s) being developed should
be relatively significant compared to the size of the company. Funding to continue R&D activities should be in place, or at least
expected to be reasonably available.
In the case of companies involved in resource development activities prior to actual income generation,
there should be promising property assets with the potential for establishment of significant reserves which could lead to production
or possible acquisition.
4. There should be experienced management in place which, hopefully, is knowledgable not only in the particular type of business in
which they are engaged, but also in the general principles of running a public company and dealing with public shareholders and markets.
5. There should be a reasonable expectation that the company will be able to stay in business for at least two years without some
sort of major structural change which could adversely affect shareholders. This may not sound like a very positive criterion but there
are many small public companies which exist on the edge, and are sometimes forced to reorganize to the detriment of shareholders.
We want to avoid situations where there may be more to lose than there is to gain. Often this is easier said than done.
Guidelines we try to use for selection of Special Situations
General Investment Strategies
We don't claim to have any unique investment strategies since virtually everything in this field has already been discovered,
invented, developed and/or refined by someone at some point in the past. Succcessful Investing involves a combination of both
skill and, probably even more so, luck. The skill portion is a combination of doing your homework and learning from past experience,
both your own and that of others. And luck is just that - being in the right place at the right time with the right information, and
having the ability to act on it quickly.
When it comes to "investing" in stocks there are generally two approaches: short term "speculation" and long(er) term "investment".
Each has its pluses and minuses. Aside from the tax aspects of holding stocks to obtain long term capital gains benefits (if applicable
in the jurisdiction where you reside), each investor must decided for him or herself when is the best time to take profits or cut
losses.
As with many things in life, timing is everything. Making the wrong investment at the right time can
sometimes turn out to be more profitable than making the right investment at the wrong time. There's a time to buy
and a time to sell, and therein lies the trick. All we can really hope to achieve here is to present opportunities which appear to
be in the right place at the right time with the hope that those who choose to take advantage of them will exercise their own good
judgement as to when they should take profits or cut losses.
General guidelines which should be considered
in making any investment decision.
1. If you are not experienced or
comfortable enough to make your own
investment decisions, seek out a licensed professional
advisor to assist
you in doing so. That alone, however, doesn't assure success.
2. Don't rely exclusively on information such as you find on this site or
anywhere else for that
matter, either in written form or on the internet.
3. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND DUE DILIGENCE.
IT'S YOUR
DECISION AND YOUR MONEY AT RISK.
4. Decide how much risk you are willing and able to accept in terms of the
capital invested and the possible loss on (or of) that investment.
5. Decide how long you
are willing to hold on to a particular investment.
6. Decide what target percent profit levels you hope to achieve, and
if you
want to take profits in steps as the price increases. Examples might be to
sell a third at a 50% price increase, another third at a 100% increase and
let the balance ride to hopefully a much higher level. Another approach is
to sell half at a double
in price to recover your investment and then see
where it goes from there.
7. Decide how long you are willing to ride out a losing investment, in hopes
that it will
turn around and go back up.
8. Decide if you want to average down in a position if your initial purchase
price was too high but the basic investment outlook still remains favorable.
9. Decide if you want to cut your possible
losses early if the timing of a
particular investment turns out not to be as opportune as you initially
expected due to a changing situation. Set a percent stop loss at which
you will sell, hoping to avoid further price deterioration.
10. Remember however, that a stop loss can lock in a loss prematurely,
and
cause remorse later if your initial purchase price was a little too high and
the stock turns around and goes higher after you sell. Taking a number
of small
losses can add up to a large total loss.
11. Don't blame the messenger if the news is bad.
12. Investing in
anything carries some degree of risk, no matter how good or
safe it may look going in.
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